How you play the game

In order to understand the development of strategy in turbulent times you have to recognize that:

• There is a high level of uncertainty about your ability to predict the future, and 

• Your organization will interact with its competitive landscape in a non-linear fashion. 

You will also face organizational resistance to developing strategy in new ways by those who confuse a long-term trend with minimal fluctuation for a linear reality. Once your organization is hit by a dramatic event or a series of disruptive changes, those same people will rationalize their linear reality by declaring such events unforeseeable. Better to understand from the start that rapid change and high impact events are part of the non-linear reality of your organization.

In an attempt to make the future more predictable, strategy managers often up the volume of scenario planning using greater variables or they go in the opposite direction and try to focus predictions on very narrow areas of uncertainty, using mapping exercises to define possible outcomes. I can't deny that these solutions have some value, especially with short-horizon events, but the problem with non-linear competitive landscapes is that they are not static. You can't develop a static map of an ever-changing competitive landscape that has an infinite number of possible outcomes.

Therefore, as far as strategy is concerned, "how you play the game" becomes more useful than predictive strategies. How you play the game is concerned with developing a meaningful understanding of your present situation. Understanding the immediate consequences of your current strategy and how your organization will cope with an ever-shifting fog of uncertainty. Honestly define what you know and what you don't know. Develop this conversation as a shared narrative within your organization. Avoid arrogant statements of predictive knowledge and challenge others who declare predictive knowledge. On the other hand, be prudent about predictable disruptive events. In other words, try asking "what do you think would happen" before you have to ask that same question with hindsight. Finally, be aware of a sensitive dependence on initial conditions - understand that small disruptions can escalate into high-impact events.

Bruce Borup